The prospects for the U.S. economy in 2015 — The U.S. economy — The U.S. economy — Каталог статей — Мировые деньги

The prospects for the U.S. economy in 2015 — The U.S. economy — The U.S. economy — Каталог статей — Мировые деньги
The prospects for the U.S. economy in 2015 — The U.S. economy — The U.S. economy — Каталог статейThe prospects for the U.S. economy in 2015The main macroeconomic indicators have improved steadily. Annual GDP growth in 2013 was 2.2%, and then in the first quarter of 2014 there was a fall in GDP of 2.1%, due mainly to external factors — the cold winter and export fluctuations. However, this decline was offset by steady growth of GDP in the second and third quarters of 4.6% and 3.9%, respectively. The main sources of growth were private consumption, exports, private investment in fixed assets, as well as government spending and investment.The unemployment rate continued to decline steadily and rapidly, reaching 5.8% in October — the minimum six years — compared with 6.7% at the end of 2013. As of October, the US economy appeared the ninth consecutive month of more than 200 thousand. new jobs. On average for 2014 monthly gain jobs totaled 228 thous., As compared to 194 thousand. In 2013 and 186 thousand. In 2012. In October 2014 the US economy added 214 thousand. Jobs.The number of long-term unemployed — more than 27 weeks has decreased over the period from October 2013 to October 2014 by 1.1 million. Pers. And their share in the total number of the unemployed — from 36% to 32%. However, the total number of long-term unemployed remains high at 2.9 million. People. Despite the continued increase in the number of economically active population — 1.6 million. People. for the year prior to October 2014, its share in the total population remains near its lowest level in 36 years — 62.8%. The low proportion of the economically active population is linked from the beginning of the retirement of generation baby boomers and the fact that during the prolonged recession, many job searches and threw out of the labor force. In October 2014 the number of part-time workers for economic reasons was still 7 million. Pers., Although for the year this figure fell by almost 1 million. People.Improvements in the labor market is not yet transformed into necessary to accelerate economic growth increase in salaries. The growth of labor remuneration for the year ending in September 2014, was 2.2% — 1.9% in the same previous period. This ranges at a very low level of about 2% for almost five years. The slow increase in labor compensation limits aggregate demand and slows economic growth.Signal landmark American Recovery was the completion of the Fed’s quantitative easing program. Since late 2008, there have been three rounds of the unprecedented scale of quantitative easing, and in January 2014 began phasing out the program, which ended in October.At the same time the Fed announced the extension of the reinvestment program and to maintain the target level of the base interest rate at the current extremely low level of 0-0.25%. In March, when the unemployment rate is very close to the level of 6.5%, there was a revision of the previous target of Fed policy, which was tied to specific indicators of unemployment and inflation. Fed refused a direct quantitative monetary policy to peg rates of unemployment and inflation, and going in making decisions based on «a wide range» of economic information. In October, the Fed announced that it will most likely zero target rate will be kept «for a considerable time» after the collapse of the program of quantitative easing. Judging by some of the speech of Fed George. Yellen, the return to normal functioning of the economy and the associated Fed rate hike is expected by 2016.Now the Fed faces an unprecedented challenge — to gradually reduce its balance sheet, which increased from almost 900 bln. Dollars. In 2007 to 4.5 trillion. dollars. 2014 This excess bank reserves at the Fed’s balance sheet reached 2.7 trillion. USD. — in August 2007, excess reserves amounted to 1.9 billion. dollars. Since October 2008, the reserve accounts of depository institutions at the Federal Reserve paid a percentage. According to the plans the Fed’s rate change this percentage should be one of the main instruments in the gradual transition to the traditional methods of monetary regulation and maintenance of super soft monetary policy.Improving the economic situation demonstrates the effectiveness of a determined and consistent policy of the Fed. However, as noted in our previous forecast, only monetary measures are not effective enough for a full recovery from the severe recession. The main brake on economic growth are still restrictions on the part of aggregate demand, lead to the continuing unstable situation in the housing market and the labor market, low absolute level and rate of growth of income and lack of private investment. In addition, the long depressed state of the economy has led to expectations that the Americans about their future income and wealth rather pessimistic, which is also a negative impact on consumer demand.The end of 2013 was marked by the protracted conflict the president and Congress, which culminated in the closure of government offices and the threat of technical default. After resolving the fiscal crisis came a short period of research agreements, in which the representatives of both parties in Congress have come to a consensus on budgetary issues. In December of 2013 it was passed by Congress and signed by the president of the compromise budget bill providing funding amounting 1.012 trillion. USD., and 1.014 trillion. USD. for 2014 and 2015 fiscal years, respectively.This enabled the restoration of the normal budget process, which in the past three years has been completely broken. The adopted law abolished the automatic sequestration budget — 45 billion. Dollars. In 2014 and 18 bln. Dollars. In 2015, already in 2013, affecting both social and military programs. The new budget reduction costs previously planned 2014-15, largely deferred to a later date, namely the years 2022-23. Total budget expenditures for the coming ten-year period will be reduced by 78 billion. USD., And the revenues will increase by 7 billion. USD., That would reduce the budget deficit of about 85 billion. Dollars.In February, the limit was set at 17.2 trillion. USD., and after a new term in March 2015 it is estimated to grow by about another 1 trillion. dollars.In January 2014, Obama signed a law on the financing of government spending to the end of the current fiscal year of $ 1.1 trillion. dollars. The law, which is the result of numerous compromises, prepared by the Committees on Appropriations of the Congress under the provisions of procedure and approved by Congress.In November 2014 midterm elections were held in the US Congress, during which the whole was re-elected lower house of Congress and the third of the Senate. Simultaneously held gubernatorial elections in 36 states.As part of the reform of financial regulation, a comprehensive system of measures to curb financial fraud and abuse, prevent financial bubbles, supervision of banking activities — including using mandatory stress tests, bankruptcy procedure regulation of financial institutions, protect the rights of consumers of financial services, and improve the overall stability of the financial system. This package of measures is yielding results.Another achievement of the Obama administration is tremendous progress in reducing the budget deficit. The budget deficit in fiscal year 2014 fell to its lowest value since 2008 — 483 billion. Dollars. Relative to GDP, the deficit amounted to 2.8%, the lowest level since 2007, and less than the average of this indicator over the last 40 years — 3.1%. The deficit of 2014 by 197 bln. Dollars. Less than in 2013, when it amounted to 680 billion. USD., And 163 bln. Dollars. Less than planned in the president’s proposed budget.Despite the protracted post-crisis period, the economic recovery is gaining momentum. There is a significant improvement in the labor market, the stock market shows record growth. Low oil prices translate into lower prices for gasoline and heating system and lead to an increase in real wealth and consumer demand, particularly among families with low and middle income countries, as well as create favorable conditions for small businesses and buying cars. It would seem that the economy could become a strong asset for the Democrats. However, as shown by the results of the midterm elections, the economic situation has improved has not so much that it could improve the experience massively American voters.Many of Obama’s transformation in the economic sphere -reformy financial regulation and health care, reducing the budget deficit are of strategic nature, and therefore do not involve tangible results in the short term. Reducing the budget deficit implies a reduction of public spending, which has a negative impact on aggregate demand and may slightly constrain economic growth. Trump President — improving macroeconomic indicators — impact on the economic situation of the voters not immediately, but with some lag.In addition, the current economic situation is still far from the objective full-fledged economic recovery. A significant factor in the results of the elections, voters got tired of a protracted recovery from the crisis and the fact that they still do not feel the stability and growth of a real improvement in their economic situation. Particularly affects the mood of Americans are extremely slow growth of wages, lack of revenue growth and instability of the housing market.The median income of American households reached in 2013 and 2014. a little more than 51.5 thousand. USD., which is 8% less than in pre-crisis 2007 — 56.4 thousand. USD. The positive trend, however, is the stabilization of this indicator, which had a negative trend from 2007 to 2012. The average annual household income, local pre-crisis peaked in 2006 — 76.9 thousand. USD., Also declined by 2013 to 72.6 thousand. USD., Or 5.6%.Despite the significant stabilization compared with the first post-crisis years, the housing market remains tense for American families. Number of households having their own homes, dipped in the second quarter of 2014 below the critical level of 65%, which is considered «historically normal» and is an average value of this indicator since 1965A key indicator of the housing market, «the beginning of new construction,» three times in 2014, overcame the mark of 1 million. Yoy — in April — 1.063 million., July — 1,098,000. And September — 1,017,000. In the pre-crisis period, the figure in For 50 years, was stable in the range of 1 to 2 million., rarely dropped below 1 million., and in the case of such a reduction is quickly restored. However, in 2009 there was a fall «started new construction» to a level below 500 thousand., And a sustainable recovery at least to the level of 1 million. Has not happened so far.Prices in the housing market reached a minimum value at the end of 2011, after which their average annual growth was 9.5%. In 2014, price growth slowed down in the 3rd quarter of 2014, prices rose by 6.5% compared to the same quarter of 2013, and most analysts predict a slowdown in price growth to 3-5% per year over the next two three years. The growth in house prices is very uneven across the country, and prices in the housing market have contradictory effects on the economic situation. On the one hand, the low prices lead to lower welfare of those 65% of Americans who are homeowners. On the other hand, potential buyers low prices are attractive and can lead to increased demand.A disaster for the president election results do not suggest that most Americans do not share the economic ideas of the Democratic Party. Rather, it affects dissatisfaction with the actions of power in general. All states — Alaska, Arkansas, Nebraska and South Dakota, as well as in Illinois, where the vote was the character of a public opinion poll proposal to raise the hourly minimum was made sure by a majority vote, despite the fact that in all these states, the election victory of Republican candidates .The election results are not too large impact on the future economic course of the country. The tasks of the newly elected legislators in any case will be maintaining economic and political leadership on the world stage and the output of the economy on the path of sustainable growth. Congress will have to deal with tax and immigration issues have problems upgrading of infrastructure, fiscal deficit and public debt. The fundamental consensus on the need for change in many areas there is now.Political differences begin with the development of specific mechanisms for implementing these tasks and, most importantly, with some linked to other issues in the framework of laws. The Democrats do not agree to separate the issue of simplification of visa regime for professionals on the issue of legalization of immigrants for a long time living in the US. In solving the problems of the tax reform stumbling block is the desire of Republicans to save numerous tax benefits and avoid progressive taxation of individuals. Reducing the budget deficit the Democrats, unlike Republicans, want to carry out, not only by reducing costs, but by raising certain taxes and state injections in generating growth sector and industries as well as in social programs.Losing control of the Democrats in Congress could lead to further aggravation and so almost impasse with the adoption of legislative decisions. It further difficulty in the functioning of the legislature, and not the content of the decisions taken by the new Congress, can be a major negative outcome of the elections.In our opinion, the Americans may feel an improvement in their economic situation in the 2015 This is evidenced, in particular, the dynamics of industrial production, which increased capacity utilization and an increase in car sales, which is an important indicator of the state of the economy.Industrial production increased at a steady pace. In the third quarter of 2014 it grew by 3.2% in annual terms, including the growth of the manufacturing industry — 3.5%, and the mining industry — 8.7%. From September 2013 to September 2014, industrial output increased by 4.3%. Capacity utilization rose in September to 79.3%, down one percentage point higher than a year ago and is approaching the long-term average for the period 1972-2012 gg., Amounts to 80.1%.An indicator of economic recovery is the growth of automobile sales. In October, sales of passenger cars and light trucks increased by 6%, and sales on an annualized basis was 16.5 mln. Pieces. Sales in annual terms for 10 months of 2014 amounted to 16.4 million. Compared with 15.5 million. For the same period last year. Thus, this figure exceeded the pre-crisis level. Another important change in the automotive market is occurred for the first time for many years shift demand from small to large power-consuming machines in volume and hence more expensive model. This is due primarily to the fall in oil prices and, consequently, on gasoline and diesel fuel. According to the forecasts, the first time in history in 2014, Americans spent on the purchase of new cars more than 400 bln. Dollars., Which is 80% higher than five years ago. Ongoing and employment growth in the US auto industry. Since June 2009, when employment in the automobile industry has reached a minimum of October 2014 was created 247 thousand. Jobs, and for 10 months of 2014 — more than 30 thousand. Jobs.In 2011, Obama first announced the need to update the American industry on the basis of innovation in the so-called initiative of advanced industrial technology. The aim is to create a strategy for securing the benefits of the US in the advanced industrial technologies. Under this initiative, proposed to create a national network of industrial innovation, including, in particular, fifteen institutions of advanced industrial technologies based on public-private partnership. Four of the institute — in Ohio, North Carolina, Illinois and Michigan — by 2014 have already been created, the establishment of four already announced. To finance the first fifteen institutions proposed to allocate up to 1 bln. Dollars. For nine years. Over the next ten years it is expected to create up to 45 such institutions.An important area of ??the new industrial policy is to encourage the creation of highly skilled jobs in the manufacturing industry in the United States. At present, US manufacturing has 312 thous. In a joint study by Accenture and the Institute for the manufacturing industry argues that more than 50% of companies plan to expand their production in the US for at least 5%, and about a quarter of the companies — to increase the number of employees in the US by 10% over the next five years, with about 80% of these vacancies must be filled by qualified or highly qualified.In March 2014 the president submitted to Congress a draft budget for 2015, which can be viewed as the presidential program for the development of the American economy, because the conditions of inter-party confrontation chance of being accepted by the Congress, this project was not originally. The priorities of the economic policies of Barack Obama are updating the industry on the basis of innovation, research and development support with the help of public funding and tax incentives, upgrading infrastructure, investment in vocational training and retraining in order to maximize compliance with the qualification requirements of employers of graduates as well as support for training in natural, mathematical and engineering sciences.In the social sphere are invited to provide universal access to preschool education, ensure a slowdown in rise in price of medical services, as well as to cut taxes for the average American worker. Obama’s plan involves a tax and immigration reforms, reducing the budget deficit to 1.6% of GDP by 2024 and stabilizing the public debt as a share of GDP and the beginning of the decline of this share from 2015The United States has long overdue infrastructure upgrades. In the ranking of the quality of road World Economic Forum, the United States for ten years fell from 7th to 18th place. According to US economists, 65% of major roads in the country are in poor condition, every fourth bridge requires significant repair or can not cope with the flow of traffic, and 45% of Americans do not have access to public transportu45. Investments in land transport infrastructure up 0.6% of GDP, which is one of the lowest in the OECD.Administration of the President of the end of April to present to Congress a bill Grow America Act, designed to ensure long-term financing of the development of the transport system. It laid down a four-year funding of $ 302 billion. USD., Of which 199 billion. Dollars. on the development of roads, 72 bln. dollars. on public transport and 19 bln. dollars. for the development of railway transport. The bill proposes a comprehensive approach to the development of all transport modes, as well as the task of regional coordination and multi-functional transport infrastructure planning, involving interaction between different modes of public transport. In addition to increasing employment, the bill should boost labor mobility by more convenient and fast transport links.One of the sources of funding of the bill proposed to make the flow of funds from corporations in exchange for a «tax amnesty», ie tax exemption during the repatriation of their profits in the United States. From a tax amnesty is expected to receive a lump sum of about 150 bln. Dollars. The disadvantage of this method of financing is that the tax amnesty is a single act that does not provide a steady flow of funds.Fight with the withdrawal of corporate profits abroad remains one of the main directions of economic policy of Barack Obama. Current tax law allows deferral of tax on corporate profits before the repatriation, which led to the accumulation of huge amounts of money in foreign accounts of American companies. By the end of 2013, their foreign accounts was 1.64 trillion. USD., which is 12% more than the year before. In 2014, intensify the fight against the increasing corporate inversions — mergers of major US companies with smaller foreign companies in order to evade taxes in the United States. The focus was the largest pharmacy chain Walgreens, which was subjected to the most brutal pressure from politicians and patriotic customers in anticipation of a possible re-registration as a Swiss company after its absorption of Alliance Boots. As a result, management has decided not to change the Walgreens to pay taxes, even though it resulted in a sharp drop in its stock price.During 2014, Obama has repeatedly harshly accused Republicans of unwillingness to negotiate and direct obstruction of the activities of the presidential administration. The presidential address in 2014, he promised that he would make maximum use of its available powers, including the «presidential order» that do not require congressional approval to implement policy changes that are necessary for the post-crisis recovery, output of the economy on the path of rapid growth and solving social problems.In the summer of 2013 the Senate approved a bill on immigration reform, but in the lower house of Congress, where the majority belongs to the Republicans, he was not even put to a vote. In June 2013, Obama announced that he is considering the possibility of implementing certain provisions of the reform through a presidential order, but then postponed the signing of the orders, not wanting to aggravate the situation in the run-up to elections. At the end of November 2014, Barack Obama has fulfilled his promises.He announced the signing of presidential decrees on the strengthening of the border to prevent illegal entry into the United States, facilitating the immigration procedure for highly qualified specialists and legalization in the US, about 5 million. People who are in the country illegally, but did not break the law. The last item is a complete rejection of Republicans. Nevertheless, in December, Congress passed the appropriation of government spending for 2015 fiscal year. This decisive step will lead the president to further aggravation of inter-party struggle and become a factor in the further aggravation of confrontation between the president and the new Republican Congress.A long and difficult way out of the American economy from the crisis is largely due to structural factors. It is not excluded that the crisis of 2008-2009. It will be the starting point of a global restructuring of the US and world economy. In the US, the crisis had three components — cyclical, financial and structural — relating to 20-year long cycle of the American economy. This cycle is based on the change of generational cohorts and the resulting change of the cycle of scientific and technological development, as well as changes in the structure and content needs, defining, in turn, the priorities of further development.Getting retirement generation of baby boomers, born between 1946 and 1964. Is in itself a challenge to economic growth. The weakness in aggregate demand, which is one of the key reasons for the slow concrete economic growth, due to, among other things, more or less stable saturation of the main mass, which have already become traditional needs. Therefore, innovative breakthroughs to create new needs and the establishment of production corresponding to these needs for goods and services.The constant innovation as the basis for the declaration of US economic policy, aimed at their competitiveness and leadership — is the foundation for the constant search for long-term needs, the satisfaction of which is the source of economic growth. The areas in which there is this search, are primarily new energy, ecology and environmental protection activities — alternative sources of energy, social projects, medical research, including those related to improving the quality of life of older people, advances in information technology, commercial flights space. This may also include renovation of the infrastructure based on new technology and the creation of advanced science-intensive manufacturing industries.It is necessary not only to create the bid, but also influence the consumer so that arose with his hand the demand for innovative new product or service. This refers to the impact of education and socio-cultural field and causes the great importance of investment in these sectors.Especially the United States is that the tactical steps to address urgent problems of the economy — to ensure stable economic growth are always mated with the strategic orientations for the future development of chelovekoorientirovannoe. This comes within the framework of the existing model, focused on innovation and future growth needs. Social, scientific, educational and cultural components are an integral part of this model.